Review and evidence

Investment thesis

TVL and the displayed APR do not tell you the yield an LP or a lender keeps. Tested on 90 days of NEAR mainnet data read at one block per day, with the rules that would falsify it fixed in advance.

Blocks 210237960 → 223087984
2026-08-06 → 2026-11-04

Verdict

3 / 3

SUPPORTED on all three counts

H1 · shown ≠ kept (Rhea)

holds

14 of 16 pools: nominal above what an LP kept; 4 within 2 pp

H2 · TVL does not rank outcome

holds

Spearman ρ = 0.33 (falsified at ≥ 0.7)

H3 · shown ≠ accrued (Burrow)

holds

7 of 18 markets off by > 0.5 pp; the weakest count

What the pool list shows vs what an LP kept

Top 16 wNEAR pools by reserve (5162 candidates, chosen on chain). Annualised, valued in NEAR at each pool's own price. 13 of 16 pools left LPs behind simply holding the tokens.

Nominal APR (last 24h fees)LP vs HODL (90d: fees − IL)Fee APR realized (90d)

#4512 /

#6458

#6724

#5462

#6065

#5469

#79

#4525

#4771

#535

#6679

#5650

#852

#6503

-40%-20%0%20%40%

The displayed number moves

Daily nominal APR (that day's fees / TVL × 365) of the three largest pools. The same pool shows a different 'APR' every day.

#4512#6458#6724

Table view (71 points)

Time	#4512	#6458	#6724
2026-11-04 00:00 UTC	9.89%	16.15%	2.20%
2026-11-02 00:00 UTC	5.25%	12.19%	0.47%
2026-11-01 00:00 UTC	8.02%	8.51%	2.27%
2026-10-31 00:00 UTC	23.86%	17.39%	0.32%
2026-10-30 00:00 UTC	30.85%	15.00%	0.22%
2026-10-29 00:00 UTC	11.33%	10.30%	0.39%
2026-10-27 00:00 UTC	15.46%	18.76%	0.40%
2026-10-26 00:00 UTC	10.97%	10.37%	0.55%
2026-10-25 00:00 UTC	21.98%	17.53%	0.77%
2026-10-23 00:00 UTC	14.22%	11.46%	2.85%
2026-10-21 00:00 UTC	22.00%	13.08%	1.27%
2026-10-19 00:00 UTC	17.25%	17.32%	0.84%
2026-10-18 00:00 UTC	13.63%	21.90%	0.24%
2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	22.58%	24.31%	0.37%
2026-10-15 00:00 UTC	36.05%	40.28%	0.38%
2026-10-14 00:00 UTC	25.38%	30.34%	1.39%
2026-10-13 00:00 UTC	34.00%	36.98%	0.56%
2026-10-12 00:00 UTC	24.99%	47.71%	3.50%
2026-10-11 00:00 UTC	18.22%	59.64%	2.85%
2026-10-10 00:00 UTC	38.82%	58.79%	0.28%
2026-10-09 00:00 UTC	76.94%	72.04%	1.46%
2026-10-08 00:00 UTC	33.41%	40.98%	1.89%
2026-10-07 00:00 UTC	13.85%	57.38%	1.75%
2026-10-05 00:00 UTC	12.96%	36.68%	0.59%
2026-10-04 00:00 UTC	11.29%	48.21%	0.54%
2026-10-02 00:00 UTC	25.27%	54.55%	0.62%
2026-10-01 00:00 UTC	39.46%	100.03%	1.04%
2026-09-30 00:00 UTC	45.08%	110.40%	1.52%
2026-09-29 00:00 UTC	54.08%	200.14%	4.89%
2026-09-28 00:00 UTC	51.82%	277.25%	6.00%
2026-09-26 00:00 UTC	18.17%	33.74%	0.89%
2026-09-25 00:00 UTC	47.34%	97.03%	1.62%
2026-09-23 00:00 UTC	71.31%	89.06%	8.16%
2026-09-22 00:00 UTC	48.94%	151.82%	8.48%
2026-09-21 00:00 UTC	53.94%	173.37%	1.67%
2026-09-20 00:00 UTC	45.79%	108.40%	3.01%
2026-09-19 00:00 UTC	54.14%	175.48%	9.92%
2026-09-17 00:00 UTC	23.37%	20.05%	0.62%
2026-09-15 00:00 UTC	13.91%	5.33%	0.48%
2026-09-14 00:00 UTC	10.52%	3.45%	0.21%
2026-09-13 00:00 UTC	6.26%	6.12%	0.76%
2026-09-12 00:00 UTC	34.66%	18.16%	1.13%
2026-09-10 00:00 UTC	27.28%	26.66%	0.60%
2026-09-09 00:00 UTC	16.94%	6.49%	1.01%
2026-09-08 00:00 UTC	16.01%	23.82%	1.47%
2026-09-07 00:00 UTC	26.45%	57.97%	1.29%
2026-09-05 00:00 UTC	15.12%	16.00%	1.47%
2026-09-04 00:00 UTC	22.59%	33.15%	0.69%
2026-09-03 00:00 UTC	10.33%	7.89%	0.30%
2026-09-02 00:00 UTC	16.42%	5.31%	0.47%
2026-09-01 00:00 UTC	10.24%	5.13%	4.71%
2026-08-30 00:00 UTC	3.59%	3.12%	0.59%
2026-08-29 00:00 UTC	9.80%	6.01%	0.37%
2026-08-28 00:00 UTC	9.21%	2.95%	0.70%
2026-08-27 00:00 UTC	10.87%	8.54%	0.82%
2026-08-26 00:00 UTC	14.96%	7.37%	2.47%
2026-08-25 00:00 UTC	26.46%	7.30%	13.50%
2026-08-23 00:00 UTC	20.06%	9.04%	8.56%
2026-08-22 00:00 UTC	43.17%	28.11%	0.36%
2026-08-21 00:00 UTC	8.12%	5.16%	0.42%
2026-08-20 00:00 UTC	8.62%	5.17%	0.72%
2026-08-19 00:00 UTC	3.97%	2.84%	0.73%
2026-08-17 00:00 UTC	3.05%	1.99%	0.26%
2026-08-16 00:00 UTC	1.20%	1.29%	0.08%
2026-08-15 00:00 UTC	3.11%	6.72%	0.87%
2026-08-14 00:00 UTC	3.16%	3.90%	0.29%
2026-08-12 00:00 UTC	6.12%	5.61%	1.81%
2026-08-11 00:00 UTC	4.66%	1.34%	3.04%
2026-08-09 00:00 UTC	2.30%	0.91%	0.34%
2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	3.82%	4.56%	0.31%
2026-08-06 00:00 UTC	—	—	—

Burrow: supply APR shown vs accrued

Realized = growth of the supply share price over the window, annualised. Incentives excluded from both. Largest gap first.

Supply APR shown (end block)Realized (90d)

Pools

All figures annualised (simple). Net APR includes a round trip of two half-swaps through the pool and a gas upper bound.

Pool	TVL	Nominal 24h	Daily range	Fee APR realized	IL	LP vs HODL	30d	Net $500	Net $5,000
#4512	$2.0M	19.4%	1.2% – 76.9%	14.0%	-9.0%	-20.8%	6.8%	-22.3%	-22.1%
#6458	$1.0M	20.1%	0.9% – 277.3%	34.0%	-4.7%	9.6%	5.3%	8.1%	8.4%
#6724	$407K	0.9%	0.1% – 13.5%	1.3%	-5.4%	-20.6%	-1.5%	-22.0%	-21.8%
#5462 idle	$388K	0.0%	0.0% – 0.3%	0.0%	-0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%	-0.7%	-0.5%
#6065 idle	$268K	0.0%	0.0% – 0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-8.5%	-0.4%	-0.2%
#5469	$240K	8.6%	2.0% – 372.7%	19.9%	-0.3%	16.2%	8.4%	14.7%	15.0%

Check it yourself

pnpm thesis:rebuild rebuilds the CSV, charts and THESIS.md offline from thesis/data/raw; a clean clone gives byte-identical files (a test enforces it).

Every raw point names its mainnet block; pool #4512 priced NEAR within a median 16 bps (max 78 bps) of the external two-source NEAR/USD on 90 days.

Counterarguments, falsification rules and limitations: THESIS.md in the repository root.